The Banque de France is launching a macroeconomic modelling consortium on nature-related risks

The Banque de France has created a French modelling consortium dedicated to studying the macroeconomic transmission channels of nature-related risks. Its aim is to strengthen the modelling capabilities of French academic leaders and economic institutions in order to better capture the impacts of natural capital loss (forests, soils, oceans, biodiversity) on economic activity and financial stability, as well as the impact of economic activity on nature degradation.

Published on the 4th of June 2025

This multi-year research project is the fruit of a partnership between the Banque de France and the laboratories of CREST, Polytechnique, CIRED, PSE (i-MIP) and the Foundation for Research on Biodiversity. Its aim is to create an ambitious, collaborative and open environment within the French economic research ecosystem.

This modelling work will focus on France, incorporating both risks directly affecting the country and imported risks related to global supply chains and interdependencies with its trading partners and neighbours.

The gradual collapse of natural ecosystems, which has already been widely documented, constitutes a major systemic risk that is still poorly integrated into traditional economic analysis tools. The loss of ecosystem services – pollination, water regulation, soil fertility – can have a lasting impact on value chains, productivity and food security, including at the macroeconomic level.

This new programme will build on the pioneering work of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which has already issued recommendations for developing nature-related macroeconomic scenarios,¹ as well as a working paper by the Banque de France providing a critical review of currently available modelling tools.² It will also contribute to further developing this work.

“In the current international context, we, as French and European citizens, must remain ambitious in the face of scientifically proven environmental risks with significant economic impacts,” asserts Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Second Deputy Governor of the Banque de France. "We are proud today to launch this French consortium with all our partners, which will enable us to develop research and modelling on nature, and thus better integrate it into our macroeconomic analyses and economic policy.”

¹ Recommendations toward the development of scenarios for assessing nature-related economic and financial risks, NGFS, 2023, available here
² Assessing Integrated Assessment Models for Building Global Nature-Economy Scenarios, Salin et al., 2024, Working Paper No. 959, available here

About the Banque de France: As an independent institution, the Banque de France has three main tasks: monetary strategy, financial stability, and services to the economy. It contributes to the definition of monetary policy in the euro area and its implementation in France; it supervises banks and insurance companies and ensures the sound management of risk; it provides many services to businesses and individuals.
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